Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 076 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a C3/SF at 17/1720 UTC in Region 9373 (S07W34). Region 9384
(N12W35) also produced small flares. Both of these sunspot groups
have been less active this past day than during the day before. New
Region 9385 (S13E42) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 9373 and 9384 are capable of C-class activity and possibly a
small M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Increased levels of activity are
possible on March 19-20 due to a CME which occurred late on March
15.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 134 Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 004/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 008/008-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 02% | 02% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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