Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 9373 (S07W06) produced several B-class subflares with the largest a B8/SF at 15/1452 UTC. This Region remains the largest and seemingly most complex on the visible disk. Region 9384 (N10W11) also produced subflares since yesterday. This sunspot group is growing and presently has a small D-type sunspot configuration. Region 9383 (S10W58) has also grown but has not yet produced significant flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. C-class activity is possible in Regions 9373, 9383, and 9384. Region 9373 appears to be the most capable of low-level M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet with occasional unsettled periods.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
Class M35%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Mar 136
  Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar  135/130/130
  90 Day Mean        15 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Mar  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  005/005-008/007-008/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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