Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The largest x-ray flare of the past day was a B9 at 14/1211 UTC. No optical flare reports were received for this particular event. Region 9373 (S08E07) remains the largest and most complex area on the visible disk and has changed little since yesterday. New Regions 9382 (N09W74), 9383 (S09W44), and 9384 (N10E02) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 9373 is the most likely source of activity, including the possibility of an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
Class M40%35%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Mar 142
  Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar  140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        14 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Mar  010/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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