Viewing archive of Monday, 12 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 9373 (S08E34) and 9376 (S15E57) emerged as the most active regions on the visible disk. Region 9373 continues to develop in size and complexity and produced occasional subfaint C-class flares. Region 9376 produced a C4/Sf at 12/1737Z with an associated CME. This region's proximity to the SE limb is still hindering a thorough analysis, but new spots became apparent today in and near this region; moderate complexity is obvious with at least three regions relatively close to each other. An eruption off the SW limb was observed late in the period. It was likely associated with an eruption of a large bushy filament that rotated around the west limb a few days ago. New Regions 9378 (N24W32), 9379 (N31E39), and 9380 (S09E66) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Best chance for a M-flare is from Regions 9373 and 9376.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Quiet conditions existed prior to a shock observed at SOHO/MTOF at approximately 12/0500Z. Mostly unsettled to active conditions were observed at all latitudes since the shock. This disturbance is presumed to be associated with the 8 Mar, M5/1b flare and CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods through day 1.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Mar 158
  Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar  155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        12 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Mar  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  010/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

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