Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 9368 (N24W59) produced an M6/1b flare at 10/0405Z, with moderate radio bursts and a Type II sweep. A CME was also observed from this event. This moderately complex region also produced a C9/1n flare at 09/2324Z. Region 9273 (S36W64) continues to develop and produced several minor C-class flares throughout the period. A C6 event was observed at 10/1622Z and was likely associated with a CME observed off the SE limb. New Regions 9374 (S19E50) and 9375 (S16W46) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Continued C-class and isolated M-class activity is expected from Regions 9368, 9372, and 9370 (N10W38).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated period of unsettled conditions between 10/0300 - 0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electrons continue at moderately enhanced levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated, high latitude active periods are possible throughout the three day period.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Mar 160
  Predicted    11 Mar-13 Mar  155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        10 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Mar  007/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  010/015-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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