Viewing archive of Friday, 9 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event of
the day was an M1/1b flare from Region 9368 (N26W44) at 09/0157 UTC.
A long duration M1 flare also occurred at 09/1028 UTC, but without
definitive optical correlation. Possible sources indicated by EIT
imagery include east and west limb activity as well as Region 9370
(N11W24), but LASCO data indicate no associated CME. Newly numbered
and rapidly developing Region 9372 (S37W50) produced several C-class
flares, the largest a C7/Sf at 09/2027 UTC. Region 9373 (S07E71)
was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Active regions noted in section 1A above are all
possible sources of isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Greater-than-2 MeV
electrons at geosynchronous orbit were moderately enhanced.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through day one.
Isolated active and minor storm periods are possible on days two and
three, primarily due to the expected influence of a recurrent
coronal hole. There is also a small chance for peripheral transient
effects from the CME activity of 8 March during the same period.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 161 Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 09 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 005/007-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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