Viewing archive of Friday, 9 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 068 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event of the day was an M1/1b flare from Region 9368 (N26W44) at 09/0157 UTC. A long duration M1 flare also occurred at 09/1028 UTC, but without definitive optical correlation. Possible sources indicated by EIT imagery include east and west limb activity as well as Region 9370 (N11W24), but LASCO data indicate no associated CME. Newly numbered and rapidly developing Region 9372 (S37W50) produced several C-class flares, the largest a C7/Sf at 09/2027 UTC. Region 9373 (S07E71) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Active regions noted in section 1A above are all possible sources of isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Greater-than-2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were moderately enhanced.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through day one. Isolated active and minor storm periods are possible on days two and three, primarily due to the expected influence of a recurrent coronal hole. There is also a small chance for peripheral transient effects from the CME activity of 8 March during the same period.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Mar 161
  Predicted    10 Mar-12 Mar  165/165/165
  90 Day Mean        09 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Mar  005/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  005/007-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm 01%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%25%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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