Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was high, due to the occurrence of an
impulsive M5/1b flare from Region 9368 (N26W33) at 08/1118 UTC. A
Type-II radio sweep and CME were also observed in association with
this event. Region 9368 has exhibited a further increase in size,
spot count, and magnetic complexity, and is the largest active
region on the visible disk. Other activity of note today included a
C5/Sf flare from Region 9370 (N10W12) and a general elevation in
background x-ray flux, with optically uncorrelated long duration
enhancements.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9368, 9370, and 9371 (N22W86) are all possible
sources of isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity has been quiet to unsettled, and
greater-than-2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days.
The CME activity noted in section 1A above, while not appearing
primarily earth-directed, could be a source of isolated active
conditions by day three.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 167 Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 08 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 009/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 005/007-005/007-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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