Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was high, due to the occurrence of an impulsive M5/1b flare from Region 9368 (N26W33) at 08/1118 UTC. A Type-II radio sweep and CME were also observed in association with this event. Region 9368 has exhibited a further increase in size, spot count, and magnetic complexity, and is the largest active region on the visible disk. Other activity of note today included a C5/Sf flare from Region 9370 (N10W12) and a general elevation in background x-ray flux, with optically uncorrelated long duration enhancements.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9368, 9370, and 9371 (N22W86) are all possible sources of isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity has been quiet to unsettled, and greater-than-2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days. The CME activity noted in section 1A above, while not appearing primarily earth-directed, could be a source of isolated active conditions by day three.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Mar 167
  Predicted    09 Mar-11 Mar  170/170/165
  90 Day Mean        08 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  009/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Mar  006/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  005/007-005/007-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%25%
Minor storm 01%01%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%30%
Minor storm 01%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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