Viewing archive of Monday, 5 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Isolated B- and C-class X-ray bursts occurred. Minor growth was noted within Regions 9366 (S25E00), 9368 (N26E08), 9370 (N09E28), and newly numbered Region 9371 (N21W51). However, all regions remained simply structured.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight to fair chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Active to (isolated) minor storm conditions occurred during the first half of the period due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Activity dropped to quiet to unsettled levels after 05/1200 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 06 March as coronal hole effects continue. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected during the rest of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Mar 156
  Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar  155/155/160
  90 Day Mean        05 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  016/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Mar  020/024
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  015/015-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%30%20%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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