Viewing archive of Monday, 5 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Isolated B- and
C-class X-ray bursts occurred. Minor growth was noted within Regions
9366 (S25E00), 9368 (N26E08), 9370 (N09E28), and newly numbered
Region 9371 (N21W51). However, all regions remained simply
structured.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight to fair chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Active to
(isolated) minor storm conditions occurred during the first half of
the period due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Activity dropped
to quiet to unsettled levels after 05/1200 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on 06 March as coronal hole
effects continue. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected during the
rest of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 156 Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 155/155/160 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 016/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 020/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 015/015-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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