Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity remained low. Isolated B- and C-class X-ray flares occurred. Minor growth was observed in Regions 9366 (S25E13), 9368 (N26E20), and 9369 (N17W62); but all were small and simply-structured. The remaining regions were small and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for an isolated, low-level M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly unsettled levels with an isolated active period during 04/1500 - 1800 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period. Brief active conditions will be possible during the first two days due to weak coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Mar 141
  Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar  135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        04 Mar 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  014/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Mar  015/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  010/012-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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