Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 062 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Occasional
B-class subflares occurred, most of which were produced by newly
numbered Region 9369 (N18W49). Region 9366 (S25E25) grew at a
moderate pace and showed some polarity mixing within the
intermediate portion of the group, but produced no flares. No
significant changes were noted in the remaining regions. New Region
9370 (N09E51) was also numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Activity is expected to be at low
levels. Region 9366 could produce an isolated M-class flare, if it
continues to develop.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during
the first half of the period. Activity increased to unsettled to
minor storm levels at approximately 03/1100 UTC following a CME
passage at the ACE spacecraft at 03/1040 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04 March as CME
effects continue. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet
to unsettled levels during the remaining two days with a slight
chance for isolated active periods due to weak coronal hole effects.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may
reach high levels during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Mar 140 Predicted 04 Mar-06 Mar 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 03 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar 020/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 015/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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