Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 February 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. An 11 degree filament (S17W05) disappeared between 28/1146-1323 UTC. A corresponding CME was observed by the LASCO imagery. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 9364 (S10W16) and 9365 (S08E37).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled the next two days of the forecast. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day three as a result of today's CME.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Feb 132
  Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar  130/135/140
  90 Day Mean        28 Feb 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  008/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Feb  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  008/008-005/005-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%06%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%40%
Minor storm10%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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