Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9354 (S08W20) produced
a couple of minor C-class X-ray events. Other minor C-class events
occurred but were optically uncorrelated. Minor growth was observed
in Region 9358 (S08E20) while Region 9354 displayed no significant
change in area or number of spots. New Region 9359 (N10E74) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for an isolated minor M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with one period
of isolated active conditions observed in the mid latitudes from
20/0900 - 1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 146 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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