Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C-class event
occurred, a C1/Sf from Region 9350 (N18E30), at 14/0618 UTC. Most of
the regions remained stable during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. The solar
wind speed remained in the 500 to 600 km/s range during most of the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the first half of the period
and then quiet to unsettled during the remainder.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 138 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 016/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 015/015-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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