Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 February 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A single C-class event occurred, a C1/Sf from Region 9350 (N18E30), at 14/0618 UTC. Most of the regions remained stable during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. The solar wind speed remained in the 500 to 600 km/s range during most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled during the first half of the period and then quiet to unsettled during the remainder.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Feb 138
  Predicted    15 Feb-17 Feb  140/145/145
  90 Day Mean        14 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  016/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Feb  020/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  015/015-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm 20%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%40%
Minor storm 30%20%20%
Major-severe storm 10%05%05%

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