Viewing archive of Monday, 12 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity remained low. A general state of decay
prevailed, as shown by the 6 sfu drop in today's 10.7 cm flux.
Isolated C-class flares occurred with an impulsive C5 at 0118 UTC
the largest of the period. EIT data suggest Region 9338 (S20W39) the
source of this flare. Late in the interval, a C4/Sf flare from
Region 9334 (N13W67) occurred at 2037 UTC. A type II sweep was
associated with this event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period. There is an
increasing chance of isolated active periods 14 February with the
anticipated passage of a CME on 11 February.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 145 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 145/145/150 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 004/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 005/010-010/010-010/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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