Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few small C-class flares
occurred, including a C1/SF at 05/2321 UTC in Region 9335 (N09E28).
This area continues to grow slowly but so far has only produced
C-level activity. Region 9339 (S11E47) is the largest sunspot group
on the visible disk but does not appear magnetically complex and has
not flared in the past 24 hours. New Regions 9341 (S10E23) and 9342
(S26E56) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
conditions were observed at a number of stations during the
06/0600-0900 UTC period. Solar wind information suggest that the
Earth has been under influence of a high-speed coronal hole stream
since about 06/1700 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 170 Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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