Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 February 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only a few small C-class flares occurred, including a C1/SF at 05/2321 UTC in Region 9335 (N09E28). This area continues to grow slowly but so far has only produced C-level activity. Region 9339 (S11E47) is the largest sunspot group on the visible disk but does not appear magnetically complex and has not flared in the past 24 hours. New Regions 9341 (S10E23) and 9342 (S26E56) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Active conditions were observed at a number of stations during the 06/0600-0900 UTC period. Solar wind information suggest that the Earth has been under influence of a high-speed coronal hole stream since about 06/1700 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Feb 170
  Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb  175/180/180
  90 Day Mean        06 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Feb  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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