Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 February 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Minor C-class flares were observed from Regions 9330 (N25E04), 9334 (N11E41), and from new regions near the SE limb. Regions 9330 and 9334 are the most complex regions on the visible disk and exhibited frequent brightenings, however, no significant changes were observed in white light. New Regions 9338 (S18E59) and 9339 (S12E74) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. An isolated M class flare is possible from Region 9330 or 9334.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at low levels through day one. Unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three as a coronal hole moves into a geoeffectively favorable position.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Feb 158
  Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb  165/170/175
  90 Day Mean        04 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  000/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Feb  002/001
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  005/005-010/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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