Viewing archive of Sunday, 4 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Minor C-class flares were
observed from Regions 9330 (N25E04), 9334 (N11E41), and from new
regions near the SE limb. Regions 9330 and 9334 are the most complex
regions on the visible disk and exhibited frequent brightenings,
however, no significant changes were observed in white light. New
Regions 9338 (S18E59) and 9339 (S12E74) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. An isolated M class flare is possible from Region
9330 or 9334.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at low levels through day one. Unsettled
conditions are expected on days two and three as a coronal hole
moves into a geoeffectively favorable position.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 158 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 165/170/175 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 002/001 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-010/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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