Viewing archive of Friday, 2 February 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A long duration C2 flare and CME was observed at 02/0918Z. EIT imagery indicate Region 9327 (N17W36) as the likely source of the activity. Another long duration event reached the C3 level at 02/2037Z and was still in progress at issue time. The apparent source of this event was enhanced plage on either side of a filament near N21E54. A CME was also observed from this event. Region's 9330 (N26E31), and 9334 (N11E67) are both E type groups, but were relatively quiet this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Regions 9330 and 9334.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a single period of unsettled conditions between 02/0000 - 0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days. Ejecta from today's CMEs do not appear earthbound.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
Class M 35%35%35%
Class X 05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Feb 166
  Predicted    03 Feb-05 Feb  170/175/175
  90 Day Mean        02 Feb 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Feb  005/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  005/007-007/008-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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