Viewing archive of Friday, 2 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. A long duration C2 flare and
CME was observed at 02/0918Z. EIT imagery indicate Region 9327
(N17W36) as the likely source of the activity. Another long duration
event reached the C3 level at 02/2037Z and was still in progress at
issue time. The apparent source of this event was enhanced plage on
either side of a filament near N21E54. A CME was also observed from
this event. Region's 9330 (N26E31), and 9334 (N11E67) are both E
type groups, but were relatively quiet this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Regions 9330 and 9334.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a single period of
unsettled conditions between 02/0000 - 0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days. Ejecta from today's CMEs do not appear earthbound.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 166 Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 005/007-007/008-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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