Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 February 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Feb 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 032 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 9330 (N25E54)
produced a C7/Sf flare at 01/0712 UTC and two lesser C-class events
during the period. This region remains the largest and most active
on the visible disk. Two new regions were numbered today: 9333
(N24W10) and 9334 (N12E78). Region 9333 developed with rapid growth
but produced no significant activity. Region 9334 rotated onto the
visible disk today and produced some subfaint optical flares, but
without any notable x-ray enhancements. Other active regions on the
visible disk were mostly stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. Region 9330 is a
potential source for isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled throughout the day,
in the wake of the geomagnetic storm activity of January 31. A
trend toward mostly quiet conditions has been evident for the latter
half of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet with isolated unsettled periods
for the next three days, barring the occurrence of an earth-directed
CME.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 161 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 011/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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