Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been low. The greatest activity of
note was an optically uncorrelated C2 flare at 30/2237 UTC. A
bright surge on the disk near spotless region 9216 (S15W84) was also
observed at 31/1536 UTC, but with only minor accompanying x-ray
enhancement. Region 9330 (N26E57) has rotated into full view as the
largest region on the disk (230 millionths coverage in white light,
in an Eao-Beta configuration), but produced no activity of note
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with only isolated chances for moderate activity
during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Shock passage associated with the CME of January 28 was observed at
the ACE satellite at 31/0742 UTC, with a subsequent sudden impulse
(17 nT) observed at Boulder at 31/0803 UTC. Unsettled to active
conditions have predominated since, with an isolated period of
minor storming recorded for higher latitudes during 31/0900-1200
UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels through February 1,
reducing to quiet to unsettled levels for February 2-3.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jan 153 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 013/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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