Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 January 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 031 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. The greatest activity of note was an optically uncorrelated C2 flare at 30/2237 UTC. A bright surge on the disk near spotless region 9216 (S15W84) was also observed at 31/1536 UTC, but with only minor accompanying x-ray enhancement. Region 9330 (N26E57) has rotated into full view as the largest region on the disk (230 millionths coverage in white light, in an Eao-Beta configuration), but produced no activity of note during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with only isolated chances for moderate activity during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Shock passage associated with the CME of January 28 was observed at the ACE satellite at 31/0742 UTC, with a subsequent sudden impulse (17 nT) observed at Boulder at 31/0803 UTC. Unsettled to active conditions have predominated since, with an isolated period of minor storming recorded for higher latitudes during 31/0900-1200 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels through February 1, reducing to quiet to unsettled levels for February 2-3.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Jan 153
  Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb  155/160/165
  90 Day Mean        31 Jan 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jan  013/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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