Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 January 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9313 (S04W64) produced a long-duration M1/1n at 28/1603 UTC associated with a halo CME. Region 9313 showed significant decay prior to the flare. Occasional C-class flares occurred during the rest of the period. The remaining regions were either stable or declining. New Region 9328 (N06W58) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare sometime during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. An isolated active period occurred during 28/1200 - 1500 UTC. A proton event at greater than 10 MeV began at 28/2025 UTC following the M1/1n flare from Region 9313. By the close of the period, the greater than 10 MeV flux reached 23.1 pfu and was gradually increasing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels late in the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 30 - 31 January in response to today's halo CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early on 29 January. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may again reach high levels during the first half of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
Class M40%40%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jan 168
  Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan  165/160/160
  90 Day Mean        28 Jan 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jan  007/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  007/004-010/008-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%40%
Minor storm10%10%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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