Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. Frequent
C-class X-ray flares occurred. Regions 9311 (N05W86), 9313 (S07W27),
and newly numbered Region 9325 (N10E64) were responsible for most of
the flares, based on analysis of SOHO/EIT images. The largest flare
of the period was a C7 at 25/0713 UTC with SOHO/EIT images
indicating Region 9325 as the likely source. Region 9311 was
crossing the west limb as the period ended. The remaining regions
were stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels on the first day decreasing to low levels on
the last two days of the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 169 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 012/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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