Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 021 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been high during the past 24 hours
due to an M7/2b flare at 20/2120Z from Region 9313 (S07E28). The
event was accompanied by a type II radio sweep and was also
associated with a CME. Yesterday's M1 flare (at 20/1847Z) was also
associated with a CME. The first of these two CMEs appeared to move
slowly and showed a full-halo signature, whereas the second CME was
fast and confined to a region off the East limb of the Sun. The
remainder of today's activity consisted of a couple low-level
C-class events. Three new sunspot regions were assigned today:
Region 9319 (S20W43), Region 9320 (S25E01) and Region 9321 (S05E69).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9313 is the main threat for M-class level
events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Most
of today's activity was quiet to unsettled, Activity was enhanced
between 0900-1800Z, with mostly active levels, and a minor storm
period from 0900-1200Z. Solar wind data indicated two sector
boundary crossings during the past 24 hours, which may be related to
the geomagnetic activity.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next 24 hours. An
increase to unsettled to active levels is expected for the 2nd and
3rd days, in response to the full-halo CME of 20 January.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 152 Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 21 Jan 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 010/008-018/010-018/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
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