Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate, another M flare was
observed from Region 9313 ( S07E41). This event, an M1/2f, began at
20/1834UTC and was accompanied by minor radio emissions, including a
type II sweep. The flare developed into parallel ribbons and the
filament running North from the region erupted during the event. A
CME was also observed. The leader spots of this region, although
small, are of mixed polarities resulting in a gamma magnetic
configuration. A new region appears to be rotating on to the disk
near S07. A small filament disappeared near S18 E09 sometime after
19/2137UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Additional M class flares are possible from Region
9313. In addition, several regions, including Region 9289 (S06
L=205) are due to return over the next couple days. Major flares
are possible if development in Region 9313 continues or if these
regions return active.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled. A brief
period of active conditions occurred around 0900UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally quiet to unsettled early in the period.
There is a good chance of active conditions later in the period as a
result of recent activity in Region 9313.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 153 Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 005/005-005/005-015/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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