Viewing archive of Friday, 19 January 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. A long duration M1/Sf flare occurred in Region 9313 (S07E57), max at 19/1710 UTC. This event consisted of several eruptive centers that brightened at various times over the duration of the flare. A small filament in this region was also reported active during the event and a CME was observed. Several new regions were numbered: Region 9315 (S28E44), Region 9316 (S17E75), and Region 9317 (N08W72).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated M class events are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jan 153
  Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan  150/145/150
  90 Day Mean        19 Jan 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jan  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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