Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 January 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to a single, impulsive M3/1N event with an accompanying 210 SFU tenflare, from Region 9302 (N19E06) at 10/1016 UTC. The other major activity of note was a long duration C5/1N event at 10/0103 UTC. This event also produced a partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) and a Type II radio sweep with an approximate speed of 1200 km/s. Only occasional C-class events occurred during the rest of the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at mostly low levels with possible isolated M-class events possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with unsettled conditions occurring during the period of 10/1500-1800 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the first day of the period and then unsettled for the remainder of the period. The predicted unsettled conditions will most likely be the result of the arrival of the CME described in section IA.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jan 163
  Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan  165/170/175
  90 Day Mean        10 Jan 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  005/005-010/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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