Viewing archive of Friday, 5 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Newly assigned Region 9302
(N19E66) produced a C6/Sf at 1851 UTC, the day's largest event. This
region consists of bright plage and a few spots, although limb
proximity prohibits extensive white light analysis. Infrequent small
C-class events of uncertain origin were noted during the interval.
Region 9289 (S07W52) is the largest of the twelve spotted regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9302 seems capable of M-level activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled throughout the period. A weak response to a
high-speed solar wind stream may occur in the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 176 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 015/010-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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