Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 January 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several small C-class flares
occurred, many of which were optically uncorrelated to active
regions on the visible disk. The likely source of this activity
remains an area at, or beyond, the northeast limb. C-class subflares
also occurred in Regions 9289 (S07W25), 9290 (N29W60), and 9294
(N22E43).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional C-class activity is expected and there is a small chance
of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels during the three-day
forecast period in response to a coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 170 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 015/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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