Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 January 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jan 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several small C-class flares occurred, many of which were optically uncorrelated to active regions on the visible disk. The likely source of this activity remains an area at, or beyond, the northeast limb. C-class subflares also occurred in Regions 9289 (S07W25), 9290 (N29W60), and 9294 (N22E43).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Additional C-class activity is expected and there is a small chance of an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels during the three-day forecast period in response to a coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jan 170
  Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan  170/165/165
  90 Day Mean        03 Jan 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jan  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  015/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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