Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was moderate, by virtue of a single
M1/1f flare originating from Region 9267 (N07E26) at 12/1507Z.
Other activity included only a few minor C-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, with a continued probability for isolated minor M-class
events from Region 9267. Old active regions due to return in the
next two days could provide additional increased activity based on
their previous rotations.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with a single period of
unsettled conditions recorded at Boulder during the interval
12/1500-1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 150 Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 150/150/160 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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