Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several minor C-class X-ray
events with no optical correlation were observed. Most of the
number regions showed little change with only region 9262 indicating
some slight growth since yesterday. New region 9263 (N18E67) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active due to a high speed
coronal hole stream. The solar wind has maintained an average speed
between 600 to 650 km/s during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantely unsettled to active the first half of
the period becoming more quiet to unsettled during the last half.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible in the high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 135 Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 011/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 014/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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