Viewing archive of Friday, 8 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several minor C-class X-ray
flares were observed, mostly from Region 9246 as it rotates around
the west limb near S11. Very little change was noted on the existing
six spotted regions. New region 9262 (N13E70) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Most activity will likely originate from Region 9246
as it rotates out of view on the SW limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The field began the period
at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, but predominantly unsettled to
active conditions began at 07/2300Z following the onset of a high
speed coronal hole stream. Current solar wind speed from this large
transequatorial coronal hole is now near 650 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly unsettled to active conditions
through day one in response to the high speed coronal hole stream.
Minor storming is likely at high latitudes. This disturbance should
subside through day two. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions
thereafter.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 138 Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 008/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 017/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 020/025-010/015-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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