Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 December 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Dec 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event
was an M1/Sf at 06/2230 UTC from Region 9246 (S11W62). This region
also produced two other optically correlated C-class events, and
other uncorrelated C-class activity also occurred. An LDE C5 flare
with an associated loop prominence was observed on the northwest
limb at 07/1940 UTC. The likely source of this activity is Region
9242 (L=N20) behind the west limb. Four new regions - all in Bxo
beta configuration - were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. An isolated chance for further moderate activity
exists for Region 9246, and possibly for Region 9254 (N10E10).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with
single periods of active levels observed at both mid and high
latitudes, during 0900-1200 and 1200-1500 UTC, respectively.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled throughout the period, with a
greater chance of active levels and isolated minor storming on day
two, under the influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 144 Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 015/015-020/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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