Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels; however,
frequent C-class events occurred throughout the period. Region 9238
(S22W48) produced a long duration C5/1f flare and CME at 23/0547Z.
Region 8231 (S23W62) produced several C-class flares, the largest
being an impulsive C7/1n flare at 23/1424Z. A long duration C7 flare
and CME in Region 8239 (S21E49) began at around 23/1930Z and remains
in progress. Region 9236 (N21E06), though not as active as
yesterday, retains moderate complexity and displayed increased
activity late in the period. New region 9241 (N21W19) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 9231 and 9236 will still be the likely source of
isolated M-class activity. Activity near the east limb may also
result in M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period between 23/03 - 06Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels through day
two. Field activity is expected to increase to active to minor storm
levels on day three due to the CME observed today at 23/0547Z.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 205 Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 210/210/205 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 010/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 010/010-012/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
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