Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate, due to a single
impulsive M1/Sn flare from Region 9237 (N10W61), 7-spot Cro beta, at
21/1917Z. Prior to this event, only sporadic minor C-class activity
was observed. New Region 9239 (S23E73), a single spot Hsx alpha, was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. In addition to continuing activity from Region 9237 as
it approaches the west limb, Regions 9231 (S23W36) and 9235 (N11W08)
remain possible sources for moderate events. Previously active
heliographic longitudes, thought to be the source for an impressive
full-halo CME on 16 November, are also due to return beginning on 23
November.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet, with isolated periods of
unsettled conditions at all latitudes for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Nov 185 Predicted 22 Nov-24 Nov 180/180/185 90 Day Mean 21 Nov 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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