Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Region 9227 (S11W02) produced today's largest event, a C4/1f flare
at 1426Z. This group continues to show slow growth and is currently
the largest group on the disk at 180 millionths. The other active
regions on the disk were stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a slight chance for an isolated M-class
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Unsettled
to active levels prevailed for most of the period, but there was a 3
hour minor storm interval from 0300-0600Z. Solar wind observations
indicate the presence of a high speed stream associated with a
favorably positioned, transequatorial coronal hole. The greater than
10 MeV proton event continued to show flux levels above threshold
throughout the period with a very slow decline. The current greater
than 10 MeV flux at 12/2100Z observed by GOES-8 was 12.4 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours. A decline
to mostly unsettled is expected during the second and third days.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end before the
end of 12 November (UTC time).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 50% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 147 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 021/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 015/018-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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