Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 November 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Nov 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. A new region
assigned today as Region 9226 (N10W94) has produced two M-class and
several C-class events. The first event was an M1 at 08/0958 UTC,
which was optically correlated with a CME visible in the LASCO/EIT
imagery. The second event was an M2/1f at 08/1636 UTC. This region
emerged late yesterday and lies in close proximity to Region 9222
(N16W77) and Region 9213 (N04W78). Another region was numbered
today as Region 9227 (S13E52). An impressive full halo CME was
observed on LASCO near 08/0450 UTC, but appears to have originated
behind the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Activity is likely to decrease to low levels on day
three as the regions on the west limb rotate around the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one and two of the
forecast period. Day three is expected to be unsettled to active
due to a recurrent coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 173 Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 08 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 029/039 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 015/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 010/010-010/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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