Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Region 9209 (S24E59)
produced a C8/1n flare at 1611 UTC, the largest event of the period.
It also had other, smaller C-class flares. The other area of
activity was the northwest limb, where a C6/sf erupted from a swath
of spotless plage near N17W77. That flare occurred at 1137 UTC. One
new region, 9210 (S30E74) rotated into view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9209 may produce an isolated M-class event
during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A proton event at
greater than 10 MeV began at 0040 UTC, reached a maximum of 15 pfu
at 0340 UTC, and ended at 1000 UTC. This activity is related to the
CME off the west limb near midday on the 25th.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled for the next 36-48 hours.
A mild disturbance from yesterday's halo CME is anticipated to begin
late on the 28th. Active conditions are possible through the end of
the period as the magnetosphere takes an oblique hit from the solar
ejection.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 171 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 175/175/180 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 010/010-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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