Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 October 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9201 (N16E19) produced an M3/1N flare at 21/1831 UTC. This region also produced a few low level C-class flares. Region 9199 (N10W17) also generated C-class activity, the largest flare being a C5/SF at 21/0956 UTC. Neither of these regions appear particularly large or complex.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low although another small M-class flare is possible in Region 9199 or Region 9201.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Activity levels may increase over the next day, including isolated active periods, due to a recurrent coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Oct 158
  Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct  160/165/170
  90 Day Mean        21 Oct 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  010/015-015/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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