Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was low, Region 9194 (S11W31) produced a
C3/1f flare with minor centimetric radio bursts at 19/0044Z. Earlier
in the period, a C1/Sf flare was observed in Region 9199 (N08E09),
Several minor fluctuations occurred in this region during the period
and the region remains moderately complex; however, no new growth
was noted. A long-duration C1 X-ray event that occurred between
19/0634 - 0826UT was also likely from Region 9199.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Region 9199 has the best possibility for anything
greater than low C-class X-ray activity. Several regions on the disk
are capable of an isolated low C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with a small
chance for active conditions at high latitudes. A greater chance for
active periods will develop on day three as a coronal hole rotates
into a geoeffectively favorable position.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 158 Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 010/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 012/010-008/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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