Viewing archive of Monday, 16 October 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event of the day was an LDE M2 flare at 16/0728UT (1.75 hr), with associated Type-II and Type-IV radio sweeps. SOHO/LASCO and EIT imagery suggest a CME source behind the west limb - most likely Region 9182, at about N04W105. An associated full halo (with faint east limb extension) was also reported by SOHO/LASCO. Prior to this event, a weaker LDE C7 flare was observed at 16/0549UT. Optical correlation was not available, but EIT imagery suggests the likely source as Region 9193 (N06W74). This region also produced a C1/Sf at 16/2020UT. Other activity was limited to region 9199 (N12E54), producing a C1/Sf at 16/1711UT. Region 9194 (S11E09) exhibited growth in spot count and magnetic complexity (now a Dai group in Beta-Gamma mag configuration), but produced no flares. Region 9200 (S16E58) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with an isolated chance of moderate-level activity for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Coronal hole high speed stream effects were evident, but produced only one active period during 16/00-03UT. A 10 MeV solar proton event associated with the M2 LDE commenced at 16/1125UT, and remains in progress.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled through day one, with some possibility of isolated active conditions due to waning coronal hole effects. The greater than 10 MeV SPE currently in progress is expected to end during day one. A greater chance of active levels during day two may result from flanking passage of a CME-associated shock from the LDE M2 flare discussed above. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day three.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Oct 161
  Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct  160/165/175
  90 Day Mean        16 Oct 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Oct  011/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  010/010-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm10%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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