Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a
C2/1f flare at 0613Z from Region 9172 (N13W73). Region 9173 (S13W68)
is currently the largest region on the disk but is stable and in a
state of slow decline.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm levels
(estimated Kp of 7). A strong shock was observed at the ACE
spacecraft at 0241Z, and was followed by transient flow with
enhanced density, speed, and magnetic fields. Major to severe
storming at all latitudes began after 0300Z. There were two
intervals of strongly negative Bz: the first was from 0504-0543Z
with Bz values reaching -27 nT and the second was from 0958-1119Z
with Bz values reaching -23 nT. Severe (estimated Kp of 7) levels
were seen at high latitudes from 0300-1500Z and mid-latitudes also
attained the K=7 level from 0600-0900Z. The disturbance appeared to
be subsiding during the last three hours of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels during the next 24
hours as the current disturbance subsides. Unsettled to active
conditions should follow on the 2nd day, and predominantly unsettled
levels are expected by day three.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 174 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 170/160/150 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 025/045 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 075/085 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 025/035-015/015-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
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