Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 October 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Oct 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C3/Sf
flare at 04/1514Z from Region 9181 (S27E41). Region 9178 (S22W16)
also produced two small C-class flares. Regions 9185 (S18W49) and
9186 (N14W41) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels with major
storm conditions at high latitudes. Storming conditions are the
result of the passage of a magnetic cloud. Data from the ACE
spacecraft showed a smooth rotation of Bz to strong negative values
starting at approximately 04/00Z; Bz remained negative for the rest
of the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the first day
and quiet to unsettled for the following two days. Effects from the
CME of 02 October are expected on day one of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 184 Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 180/180/170 90 Day Mean 04 Oct 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 019/037 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 030/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 025/025-012/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct to 07 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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