Viewing archive of Friday, 22 September 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. MOST ACTIVITY OCCURRED IN REGION 9169 (N10E13), WHICH PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE LARGEST BEING A C5/SF IN PROGRESS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, 22/2100 UTC. THIS REGION REMAINS THE LARGEST AND MOST IMPRESSIVE ON THE DISK, EXHIBITING AN INCREASED NUMBER OF SPOTS WITH SLIGHTLY REDUCED AREAL EXTENT SINCE YESTERDAY, AND RETAINING A BETA-DELTA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 9166 (S12W30) ALSO PRODUCED SOME C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 9169 REMAINS A LIKELY SOURCE OF ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FILED HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY QUIET THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ISOLATED UNSETTLED PERIODS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGHER LATITUDES. GREATER-THAN-2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT MODERATE LEVELS DURING LOCAL DAYTIME HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
BARRING AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME FROM REGION 9169, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST TWO DAYS, WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ACTIVE LEVELS BY DAY THREE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 23 SEP to 25 SEP
Class M70%70%70%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton05%05%10%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 SEP 232
  Predicted   23 SEP-25 SEP  235/235/230
  90 Day Mean        22 SEP 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 SEP  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 SEP  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 SEP-25 SEP  010/010-010/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 SEP to 25 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
VI. COMMENTS EFFECTIVE 2 OCT 2000, SEC WILL ISSUE ITS TEXT PRODUCTS IN MIXED CASE VS. ALL UPPER CASE. THIS CHANGE WILL BE VISIBLE ON ALL SEC PRODUCT DELIVERY SYSTEMS EXCEPT FOR TELETYPE CIRCUITS. ONLY THE CASE OF THE TEXT IN EACH PRODUCT WILL CHANGE, NOT THE FORMAT OR SPACING WITHIN THE PRODUCT. FOR DETAILS SEE OUR WEBSITE AT SEC.NOAA.GOV/MIXEDCASE.HTML

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