Viewing archive of Friday, 8 September 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 08 SEP 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS THE
LONG DURATION C7/SF FROM REGION 9151 (N13W61), WHICH COMMENCED AT
THE END OF LAST PERIOD AND PERSISTED INTO THIS ONE. AN ASSOCIATED
TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP WAS SUBSEQUENTLY REPORTED, AS WAS A PARTIAL HALO
CME FROM SOHO/LASCO. TWO OTHER MINOR C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED TODAY,
ONE FROM REGION 9151, AND ONE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BE LOW TO
MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY COULD STILL OCCUR FROM REGIONS
9151, 9149 (N14W78), OR 9154 (S17W49) BEFORE THEY ROTATE OFF THE
WEST LIMB.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE, WITH ONE PERIOD OF
MINOR STORMING AT HIGHER LATITUDES FROM 0900-1200 UTC.
GREATER-THAN-TWO MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT
ENHANCED LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS DUE TO POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF A WEAK
CORONAL HOLE. THE RECENT CME ACTIVITY, DISCUSSED IN SECTION IA ABOVE,
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTH-DIRECTED.
III. Event Probabilities 09 SEP to 11 SEP
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 SEP 163 Predicted 09 SEP-11 SEP 160/155/150 90 Day Mean 08 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 SEP 012/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 SEP 017/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 SEP-11 SEP 012/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 SEP to 11 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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