Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 September 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 07 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE DAY WAS IN PROGRESS AT THE END OF THIS REPORTING PERIOD: A C7.2 LONG DURATION FLARE AT 07/2055 UTC, WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE-II RADIO SWEEP, AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS OF ASSOCIATED TYPE-IV RADIO SWEEP. NO CORRELATED OPTICAL REPORTS WERE AVAILABLE, ALTHOUGH PRELIMINARY INFORMATION INDICATES THE SOURCE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS REGION 9151 (N12W47). AVAILABLE INFORMATION IS PRESENTLY INSUFFICIENT TO GAUGE THE GEOEFFECTIVE POTENTIAL OF THIS EVENT AT THIS TIME. REGION 9151 ALSO PRODUCED A C4.4/SF FLARE EARLIER IN THE DAY, AT 07/1115 UTC, AND HAS EXHIBITED SOME GROWTH SINCE YESTERDAY. C-CLASS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO OBSERVED FROM REGION 9149 (S15W62). TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY: 9158 (N30E70) AND 9159 (S19E31).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 9149 AND 9154 (S18W35) REMAIN POTENTIAL SOURCES OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH AN ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD OBSERVED AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS ON DAY ONE, AS THE DISTURBANCE WHICH COMMENCED YESTERDAY SUBSIDES. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE PRESENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 08 SEP to 10 SEP
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 SEP 173
  Predicted   08 SEP-10 SEP  180/180/175
  90 Day Mean        07 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 SEP  011/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 SEP  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 SEP-10 SEP  015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 SEP to 10 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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