Viewing archive of Monday, 4 September 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 04 SEP 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
9154 (S19E06) SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SPOT COUNT AND AREA.
IT PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 04/0109 UTC ALONG WITH ISOLATED
C-CLASS SUBFLARES. REGION 9149 (N14W22) SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AND PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THE REMAINING
REGIONS WERE MOSTLY SMALL AND STABLE. A 32-DEGREE FILAMENT, LAST
SEEN NEAR N13 W38, ERUPTED FROM THE DISK DURING 04/0500 - 0600 UTC.
NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR ANOTHER M-CLASS
FLARE FROM REGION 9154. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 9149.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL 04/1330 UTC. FIELD ACTIVITY
INCREASED TO QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY
DECREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE SECOND DAY. UNSETTLED
TO ACTIVE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED BEGIN LATE ON THE THIRD DAY IN
RESPONSE TO TODAY'S FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE.
III. Event Probabilities 05 SEP to 07 SEP
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 SEP 171 Predicted 05 SEP-07 SEP 175/175/180 90 Day Mean 04 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 SEP 006/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 SEP 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 SEP-07 SEP 010/012-010/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 SEP to 07 SEP
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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