Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 September 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Sep 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 03 SEP 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. A SINGLE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. REGION 9149 (N14W10) WAS STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT REMAINED A MEDIUM-SIZED E-TYPE GROUP WITH MINOR POLARITY MIXING OBSERVED NEAR ITS LEADER SPOT. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY SMALL, STABLE, AND SIMPLY STRUCTURED. NEW REGION 9155 (S11E32) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT TO FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 9149. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 04 SEP to 06 SEP
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 SEP 154
  Predicted   04 SEP-06 SEP  155/160/165
  90 Day Mean        03 SEP 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 SEP  018/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 SEP  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 SEP-06 SEP  012/012-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 SEP to 06 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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