Viewing archive of Monday, 28 August 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 28 AUG 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 9143 (S19E20) PRODUCED AN C3/1N EVENT AT 28/1704Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO GROW AND IS THE LARGEST REGION OUT OF THE TEN SPOTTED REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE SOLAR DISK. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 9147 (N04E67), 9148 (S20E47), AND 9149 (N10E70).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 9143 AND 9144 (N26W24) REMAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST. POSSIBLE PERIODS OF MINOR STORM LEVELS MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED DURING NIGHTTIME SECTORS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY THE INFLUENCE OF A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 29 AUG to 31 AUG
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 AUG 160
  Predicted   29 AUG-31 AUG  165/170/175
  90 Day Mean        28 AUG 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 AUG  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 AUG  012/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 AUG-31 AUG  015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 AUG to 31 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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