Viewing archive of Friday, 25 August 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 25 AUG 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 9143 (S19E59)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 25/1435Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE
II/IV AND A 130 SFU BURST AT 2695 MHZ. A LARGE DENSE MASS EJECTION
FOLLOWED THE EVENT AND WAS SEEN TO PROPAGATE PRIMARILY OFF THE EAST
LIMB NEAR THE EQUATOR. PRIOR TO THIS EVENT, REGION 9143 WAS
PREDOMINANTLY STABLE. A LARGE FILAMENT NEAR N37W21 ERUPTED BETWEEN
25/0955-1123Z. THIS FILAMENT ELEVATED AND BECAME MORE DENSE FOR AT
LEAST A DAY BEFORE THE ERUPTION. A SMALL REGION BEGAN TO EMERGE
RAPIDLY NEAR N25E14 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 9144.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
LOW. OBVIOUSLY, REGION 9143 IS CAPABLE OF GENERATING M-CLASS
EVENTS. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF OBVIOUS GROWTH AND MAGNETIC SIMPLICITY
ARGUE FOR ONLY ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS FROM THIS REGION.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS STEADY NEAR
400 KM/S.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AT THIS
TIME, THE MASS EJECTION OBSERVED TODAY IS NOT PROJECTED TO IMPACT
THE EARTH.
III. Event Probabilities 26 AUG to 28 AUG
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 AUG 133 Predicted 26 AUG-28 AUG 135/137/140 90 Day Mean 25 AUG 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 AUG 007/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 AUG 003/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 AUG-28 AUG 005/008-005/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 AUG to 28 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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