Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 August 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 24 AUG 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A LOW LEVEL. THE LARGEST
EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C6 AT 24/0917Z.
EUV IMAGERY INDICATE THIS EVENT ORIGINATED FROM BEHIND THE NORTHWEST
LIMB WHERE REGION 9125 COMPLETED WEST LIMB TRANSIT ON 23 AUGUST.
REGION 9131 (N14W72) GREW DURING THE PERIOD. TWO SMALL REGIONS
ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB AT N16E71 AND S18E70 AND WERE NUMBERED
AS NEW REGIONS 9142 AND 9143 RESPECTIVELY. REGION 9143 IS THE
LARGER OF THE TWO AND PRODUCED INFREQUENT SUBFLARES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POSSIBILITY OF A LOW LEVEL M-CLASS EVENT DURING THAT TIME.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE ON 25 AUGUST.
III. Event Probabilities 25 AUG to 27 AUG
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 AUG 131 Predicted 25 AUG-27 AUG 128/128/130 90 Day Mean 24 AUG 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 AUG 005/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 AUG 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 AUG-27 AUG 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 AUG to 27 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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