Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 August 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 23 AUG 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS
EVENTS OCCURRED. CURRENT DISK REGIONS ARE SMALL AND EXHIBITED ONLY
MINOR EVOLUTION. THE EAST LIMB WAS QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL THE 23/0900-1800Z TIME PERIOD.
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WERE OBSERVED DURING THAT TIME. QUIET
RETURNED FOR THE 23/1800-2100Z PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 24-25 AUGUST
WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE LEVELS POSSIBLE. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST.
III. Event Probabilities 24 AUG to 26 AUG
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 AUG 137 Predicted 24 AUG-26 AUG 134/132/132 90 Day Mean 23 AUG 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 AUG 003/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 AUG 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 AUG-26 AUG 010/012-010/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 AUG to 26 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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